James Evans’ paper “Future Science” was published in Science Magazine on Oct. 4th, 2013.
“An emerging area of interest in research on the “science of science” is the prediction of future impact. Impact prediction is consequential for the evaluation of research grants, the dispensing of scholarly awards, and the determination of faculty salaries, among other decisions. As predictions improve, they will play a larger role in directing choices about what areas public and private capital will choose to research, develop, and produce. But how can we predict the future?”
For More: Evans, James A. Future Science Science 342, no. 6154 (October 4, 2013): 44–45.